In yesterday’s Russian daily RBC, the president of Mindshare Group Russia, Vladimir Rass, conveyed that he expects the ad market will decrease 25-27%, to RUB 195-200bn (EUR 4.41-4.52bn) in Russia in 2009 vs 2008.

• The TV ad segment will fall 20-22%, to RUB 107-110bn
• Outdoor ads by 30-40%, to RUB 27.3-32bn
• Ads on radio by 35%, to RUB 9.1bn
• Ads in printed periodicals by 40%, to RUB 34.56bn

In his opinion, the amount of ads in the Internet will remain at the level of 2008 by the end of 2009, or will grow about 5%. Thus, demand for ads in Runet will total RUB 7.5-7.88bn. Managing Director of Aegis Media for Russia, Andrey Brayovich, supposes that the segments of TV and Internet will overcome the crisis faster. The Russian online advertising market grew by 5% in H1 2009. Original article in Russian here.

I read a good list of tips for entrepreneurs from Larry Page, Google’s co-founder, in the very cool website ecorner. I like number three a lot!

Tip 1: Just don’t settle. Especially with employees, it is very important to find great people you are compatible with.
Tip 2: There is a benefit from being real experts. Experience pays off.
Tip 3: Have a healthy disregard for the impossible. Stretch your goals.
Tip 4: It is OK to solve a hard problem. Solving hard problems is where you will get the biggest leverage.
Tip 5: Don’t pay attention to the VC bandwagon. Don’t start a company just because you can. Instead, have a really good idea that is good regardless of the funding situation.

Russia’s single and most acute problem is the demographic trend of the country. National Human Development Report, Russian Federation, 2008: Russia Facing Demographic Challenges is a study recently released by the United Nations. This report projects that Russia would lose at least 11 million more people by 2025. According to the study, “in the coming decades, the nation confronts accelerated population decrease; a dwindling of the working-age population; the general aging of the population; the drop in number of potential mothers; a large immigrant influx; and a possible rise in emigration rates”.

“The mortality crisis is one of the clearest manifestations of Russia’s long-term demographic crisis”, the report warns, with the gap between Russia and other developed countries widening since 1964. Further, life expectancy for both sexes was shortest in Russia among 33 European nations, and Russia lags far behind both the United States and Japan.

A two-pronged strategy is needed to reverse these trends, the new report said, calling for the promotion of active and healthy lifestyles on the one hand, and the adaptation of social services and institutions to the needs of the aging population on the other. It also pointed to migration as a possible way to fill gaps and boost the workforce to support economic growth.

In the past 16 years, nearly 6 million immigrants have come to Russia, but the study warned that for migration to be a truly effective solution, Russian society must adjust to accept the newcomers. Another UN report said last year that the population could fall to as low as 100 million in 2050.

More news and analysis here and here. Images of the Republic of Karelia, courtesy of Eero Korhonen.

Finland encourages domestic expertise in clean technology, which it promotes worldwide. Testimony of this reality follows.

1. Between 1998 and 2007 Finnish companies invested 337 EUR Million in energy efficiency, saving 7,35 terawatt hours of energy
2. The International Energy Agency has established that “Finland is a model for the world” in combined heat and power generation
3. A whooping 7% of Finnish exports are in clean tech, the highest of any OECD country
4. The number of Finnish nanotechnology companies has tripled since 2004
5. Since the 1990s, Helsinki has increased energy production by 60%, and has also increased air quality

Sources: Helsinki Times and Cleantech Finland

Michael E. Porter of Harvard Business School developed Porter’s Five Forces Analysis in 1979 as a framework for industry analysis and strategic development. The goal of the model is to derive the five forces that determine the competitive intensity and, thus, the attractiveness of a market. If profitability is high across the market, it’s attractive; if the combination of forces drives profitability of the market or industry down, it is deemed “unattractive”.

Porter refers to these forces as micro environmental, as they are forces close to the company and which affect it’s ability to serve its customers and make a profit. In the model, should a change occur in any of the forces, the company must re-evaluate the marketplace. Also, it is important to note that the overall industry attractiveness does not mean all companies in it will yield the same profitability, as specific business models within them might allow individual companies to deliver above average profitability.

The model is nice to assess the attractiveness of a market we’re in or planning to enter by stating under each epigraph the reality of the micro environment. The model’s graphic representation is as follows:

Last night I was looking for information on how to descale a kettle. I found a cool site with all things handy for life. Actually, the site’s slogan is “Get Good at Life”. The place is called Videojug and they basically show you videos on how to do stuff to fix some everyday problems and many other things (like How to Make an Origami Pig or an interview with a specialist on What is Bronchitis).

What I liked was how they are selling video ads. In the screen-shot I have a video about something as bizarre as origami pig making and it has an overlay on the bottom part of the screen. I also find the content is extremely suitable for this format (videos are well executed, pruned and edited, useful and purposeful (for the most part, forgive my examples). So, quality is reliable and acceptable which, for such a utility service, is critical.

As it’s a “solving-daily-issues-by-video-snaps-for-the-masses” kind of place, its content perfectly lends itself for click based non-intrusive video advertising formats.

Last week Yuri Milner picked up 1.96 pct of Facebook for US$200 M, putting the company’s value at about US$10 B. After doing this, he made the following statement to the media:

We are seeing a fundamental trend on this in Russia – all our businesses are profitable and we believe that the consumption of advertising online will change. Google started this revolution and social networks will continue it. Social networks will allow advertising to be much more targeted.

Milner is CEO of DST (Digital Sky Technologies) with interests in Russia’s e-mail portal Mail.ru, social networks Odnoklassniki.ru and Vkontakte.ru and dating site Mamba, along with others. Russia’s internet audience is Europe’s 4th after Germany, Britain and France, says comscore.

Anyone for comments?

“Experiments are only revealed in retrospect to be turning points”.

I strongly recommend to anyone working in media, or classifieds, or publishing of any kind to read this post.

And now, back to thinking about Aldus Manutius, the Elder.

Good night!

I normally get very edgy with people trying to persuade me that standardising is not possible blah, blah, blah or that cultural and national differences provide strong barriers to deployment of certain product groups blah, blah, blah, especially in software or services targeted to some very specific industries (automotive dealers, official ones; real estate agency networks, and so forth).

However, there is always a fine grain and some extra reading gave me some fresh perspective. I think it’s fair to remember that the Not Invented Here Syndrome, first of all, sort of came out of the perceived hard-headiness of software development teams thinking that they must do everything themselves. On the other hand, when looking into reducing fixed costs and passing “out” parts of your key business processes, I find the following quote not just fair but probably quite wise:

If it’s a core business function — do it yourself, no matter what.

Pick your core business competencies and goals, and do those in house. If you’re a software company, writing excellent code is how you’re going to succeed. Go ahead and outsource the company cafeteria and the CD-ROM duplication. If you’re a pharmaceutical company, write software for drug research, but don’t write your own accounting package. If you’re a web accounting service, write your own accounting package, but don’t try to create your own magazine ads. If you have customers, never outsource customer service.

Don’t ask me why I liked this whole post. But I did. Thanks Joel. On the other hand, I recommend reading The Power of Dynamic Value Chains for better and deeper insights.

I follow an interesting blog on marketing and strategy and came across some fine insight about XXIC business transformation needs. Basically the author states that in these times, we need to think way bigger than we used to. The era of large corporations making incremental changes is giving way to the era of small ones making huge predicaments. Of course one would argue that business transformation comes from aligning stakeholders with a shared sense of purpose into new ways of doing business, setting processes or entering a market.

But, in fact, it’s just people (as in individuals, the human subject matter of the mix) who can actually make or break this. And, according to this author, in order to make them tick, you need to maximize purpose, maintain a bifocal focus, and make change safe.

• Maximise purpose: do you see the value and virtue of “co-creating purposes”? If not, get with it!
• Maintain a bifocal view: watch the horizon and keep your eye on the small footsteps – at all times, see both
• Make change safe: nothing matters more to your organisations’ survival, yet nothing scares people more than change. So be aware of what freaks your people out and make sure you address it, making a safer environment for them to take risks and embrace change. “Understand the organisations’ specific fears”; reward change agents.

If you like what you read here, go for the full original post from Idris Mootee to get more insights into this approach to organisational transformation.